Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 11.791806 13.503124 15.341502 17.459120 19.826800 22.388198 25.364413
2025-10-05 9.518041 11.899139 14.650759 18.048412 22.112469 26.798201 32.588846
2025-10-12 8.289514 10.966808 14.208361 18.389500 23.603521 29.852439 37.865309
2025-10-19 7.134290 9.946281 13.499895 18.268678 24.441845 32.098537 42.239747
2025-10-26 6.224338 9.091047 12.853228 18.079275 25.065924 33.989310 46.136795
2025-11-02 5.556804 8.470405 12.428152 18.100058 25.904610 36.135160 50.402358
2025-11-09 5.044782 7.999649 12.142496 18.250690 26.877197 38.451564 54.943128
2025-11-16 4.544037 7.486700 11.740175 18.183989 27.511813 40.304436 58.901603
2025-11-23 4.085960 6.986563 11.304383 18.017743 27.966131 41.894762 62.528375
2025-11-30 3.761361 6.657143 11.086515 18.139240 28.815865 44.046264 66.993967
2025-12-07 3.563265 6.507705 11.123780 18.632976 30.219559 47.025195 72.729011
2025-12-14 3.224975 6.093783 10.712321 18.399981 30.505293 48.375197 76.142300
2025-12-21 2.794930 5.488001 9.954796 17.582478 29.866333 48.354452 77.583612
2025-12-28 2.667456 5.398348 10.034737 18.110913 31.344654 51.560834 83.947493
2026-01-04 2.522847 5.262009 10.021444 18.476243 32.568509 54.411425 89.857662
2026-01-11 2.308869 4.975791 9.727020 18.346736 32.977337 56.007226 93.891812
2026-01-18 2.107544 4.692701 9.414100 18.159506 33.270573 57.417882 97.670080
2026-01-25 1.955738 4.490785 9.229772 18.179348 33.900927 59.375450 102.359826
2026-02-01 1.835339 4.339697 9.125840 18.330919 34.753928 61.712595 107.719037
2026-02-08 1.697152 4.137713 8.910224 18.263833 35.219946 63.426014 112.120360
2026-02-15 1.559323 3.922039 8.651009 18.096997 35.496215 64.825599 116.043917
2026-02-22 1.466093 3.793656 8.551427 18.218943 36.282953 67.095456 121.456332
2026-03-01 1.419424 3.764670 8.646856 18.714570 37.758914 70.574072 128.974737